Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 5.262718 6.275709 7.397487 8.727131 10.255152 11.951057 13.970401
2025-02-23 3.439108 4.702779 6.264768 8.315435 10.912166 14.064522 18.151257
2025-03-02 2.340933 3.625904 5.377710 7.889375 11.338083 15.840044 22.081349
2025-03-09 1.742783 3.016712 4.908838 7.832514 12.124867 18.066247 26.751364
2025-03-16 1.310057 2.518357 4.461279 7.673354 12.675962 19.960142 31.098396
2025-03-23 1.110032 2.333192 4.435244 8.108231 14.106477 23.196610 37.591892
2025-03-30 0.904489 2.079469 4.235868 8.211437 15.003617 25.690275 43.172305
2025-04-06 0.734547 1.844541 4.015587 8.227498 15.733627 27.959118 48.559393
2025-04-13 0.597113 1.636064 3.798012 8.201580 16.366974 30.100171 53.879209
2025-04-20 0.549086 1.611289 3.930396 8.832961 18.199463 34.334207 62.838746
2025-04-27 0.476229 1.507143 3.878568 9.095410 19.382826 37.554234 70.335680
2025-05-04 0.420321 1.429319 3.866885 9.430501 20.723900 41.130970 78.645087
2025-05-11 0.346026 1.282846 3.681285 9.396138 21.390172 43.633479 85.405211
2025-05-18 0.271219 1.108262 3.393462 9.099449 21.511877 45.175365 90.625554
2025-05-25 0.206979 0.939299 3.079177 8.688581 21.347211 46.164592 94.921372
2025-06-01 0.169453 0.843749 2.933757 8.644554 21.936604 48.610567 102.004622
2025-06-08 0.135197 0.743766 2.751143 8.477696 22.235866 50.507404 108.178465
2025-06-15 0.123998 0.730936 2.819635 8.953316 24.003822 55.418690 120.301290
2025-06-22 0.105544 0.678071 2.753584 9.066470 24.954420 58.742441 129.561561
2025-06-29 0.088108 0.620380 2.657932 9.084255 25.682224 61.655349 138.182941
2025-07-06 0.072817 0.564055 2.552170 9.056166 26.294884 64.364729 146.547196
2025-07-13 0.070521 0.576622 2.689540 9.742893 28.704519 71.009752 163.063649
2025-07-20 0.062575 0.552620 2.689878 10.028165 30.146575 75.669583 175.811172